Warmer Winter Ahead: Aspen Forecasted to Get Less Snow
Meteorologist Alan Smith said Aspen’s upcoming winter is on the edge of uncertainty, with conditions that could shift in either direction. Current forecasts lean toward warmer-than-normal temperatures and the possibility of less snowfall overall.
According to Smith, the Western Slope, including Aspen and Crested Butte, shows a slight tendency toward below-average snow, while the rest of Colorado remains difficult to predict. Warmer temperatures may also bring heavier, wetter snowfalls than usual.
Smith explained that a northwest flow this winter could send blasts of cold air across the U.S. Plains, though those shallow systems rarely cross the Continental Divide into Western Colorado. Even so, cold spells are still expected at times.
Looking at long-term trends, Smith said consistent changes in snowfall patterns haven’t yet appeared in Western Colorado, though warming temperatures could lower snow levels in valley areas and cause earlier snowmelt in spring. He also pointed to an increase in spring dust events over recent decades, driven by a drier Southwest and human activity, which has sped up snowmelt in mountain regions.
Interestingly, warmer conditions in higher elevations don’t always mean less snow. In some cases, increased moisture in the air can actually lead to more snowfall.
For skiers, Smith advised waiting until about a week before traveling to plan trips. Forecasts typically become clearer seven to ten days out, with the best detail on storm timing appearing within a week.
Smith emphasized that forecasts are never absolute, and weather can always bring surprises.
By: River StingrayI The Aspen Times I August 25, 2025
Photo: Austin Colbert / The Aspen Times