Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast (March 2024)

Zillow’s home value forecast calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 – slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers compared to the rapid appreciation seen over the pandemic. This is an upward revision from last month’s outlook, which projected growth of 0.9%. With interest rates still elevated, the modest upward revision is mostly the result of a slowdown in the growth of new for-sale listings. After rising at an annual pace of 21% in February, the year-over-year increase in new listings eased in March to just 4%, indicating that the market remains quite tight for would-be homebuyers. It remains to be seen how new listings will fare in April – the Easter holiday falling in March and the fact that February was a leap year are likely clouding the broader picture.

Zillow’s expectation for home sales was revised slightly downward this month as elevated mortgage rates continue to limit housing demand and sales volume. Zillow’s forecast now calls for 4.06 million existing home sales in 2024, slightly below both 2023’s level of 4.09 million and the previous forecast of 4.1 million existing home sales this year. Even after a better-than-expected sales count reading in February, leading indicators of home sales in the coming months suggest continued softness.

By: Zillow I April 15, 2024